Will Trump Leave the GOP?
He’s been quiet for the last couple of weeks and his 2024 campaign appears to be on hold. But today Trump said he is making a ‘major announcement’ tomorrow because America ‘needs a superhero’ which I guess is what he plans to be.
There has been some loose talk around about Trump bolting the GOP and running on his own. It’s not as silly or stupid an idea as you might think, because such a move would actually not only save him a lot of money but might even work out.
First of all, let’s understand that at this point Trump doesn’t really have any kind of campaign. There’s no staff, there’s no state-level organizing going on, there’s no finance committee or financial chair, and there aren’t any committees being formed. In other words, to quote Grandpa, there’s ‘gurnisht helfen’ (read: not a goddamn thing.)
But guess what? Trump doesn’t need anything because I don’t believe he cares whether he would get elected again or even gets into the 2024 race. What Trump wants to do is what he always has done, which is to promote his brand, which happens to be his name.
Trump steaks, Trump wines, Trump aftershave lotion or Trump lawn signs. What’s the difference? The only difference is he can’t make a buck by selling a lawn sign with his name on it, so those signs read MAGA, which is a fully owned and copyrighted name.
Trump would be making a mistake by not bolting from the GOP tomorrow because what does he gain by staying inside the tent? First of all, many of what Grandpa would call the ‘chuchems’ (read: big shots) in the Republic(an) ranks have already said they don’t want him to be the candidate in 2024. Second, his lousy poll numbers will attract a bunch of candidates which means hiring lots of staff and running lots of ads during the primaries, neither of which come cheap.
On the other hand, if Trump registers a third party and runs on his own line, he doesn’t have to have anything to do with the primaries, can save himself all kinds of dough and claim that he’s still the favorite because he’s supported by his so-called ‘base.’
Now the fact is that the last time GOP voters had to choose between Trump and any other Republic(an) candidate was in 2016, when Trump snared 14 million primary votes, which was 44% of all GOP primary votes cast. So, let’s say just for the sake of argument, that half those voters will stick with Trump through thick and thin. Or let’s give Trump all 14 million and consider this to be the be-all-and-end-all MAGA base.
What would happen if Trump decided to run in the general campaign on an independent line? The Democrats would win the election no matter who they ran.
What would happen if Trump would tell his MAGA zealots to cast their ballots for the GOP? Most of his groupies would probably stay home.
Either way, by staying in the GOP field or going on his own, Trump gets what he really wants because all he really wants is to stick around. This guy’s no Mitt Romney, who led a successful, twenty-year business career and then spent eighteen years in politics before running and losing for President in 2008 but then gaining a Senate seat in 2018.
This guy, meaning Trump, just wants to play political theater to sell whatever products he can sell that carry his name.
If that marketing strategy makes Trump some dough but cripples the GOP, I’ll be the first one to buy a MAGA hat.